Gap Probabilities for Wednesday 7/14/2010
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These Probabilities Have lead to 100% Winning Trades so far!
Please note that the above factual statement does not mean that it is mathematically possible for this to continue for ever. Having said that, I believe this system will help you gain remarkable advantage over random trades.
For help with using this guide visit Fading Opening Gaps 101.
For trading in general, the best place I have found so far is
LBR Group
headed by market wizard Linda Raschke. Beware that most other sites are scams.
For an overview of today's market see
complimentary video from LBR Group.
LBR Group
headed by market wizard Linda Raschke. Beware that most other sites are scams.
For an overview of today's market see
complimentary video from LBR Group.
Yesterday's Forecast and Recap
Yesterday's Forecast:
Before Gap
The only high probability area confirmed by both structure and timing is the H-C zone between 1077.25 and 1076.25 which is too narrow and probably will not trigger.
The only high probability area confirmed by both structure and timing is the H-C zone between 1077.25 and 1076.25 which is too narrow and probably will not trigger.
After Gap
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the open (1071 ), probabilities are very good for this setup. We will have to wait for a move to close the gaps, then we enter in the direction of the move for 4 additional points. Because of low true range of market, stop is at 5.
Yesterday's Recap:
Before Gap - ES opened at 1086, well above the high of yesterday. The profit factor and win rate for this zone was well below the acceptable levels. So there was no trade setup to fade this gap. As it turned out, this would have been a total looser because the market rallied.
After Gap - The market opened in the right zone for this trade. This trade would have triggered if after market opened, the price had moved down to yesterday's close which did not happen.
After Gap - The market opened in the right zone for this trade. This trade would have triggered if after market opened, the price had moved down to yesterday's close which did not happen.
Additional Comment: Don't be disappointed that this system has trade-able setups only for some days and even if we do have a setup, it may not triggered because the market does not open in a triggering zone. I expect to see only one or two trades a week and perhaps 5 or 6 per month. This is like digging gold and diamond hidden in the middle of tons of trash. I am working on increasing the number of trades on this system without compromising on the odds. I have some very interesting work in progress. So please keep visiting this page and you will see it will get better and better.
Today's Forecast Summary:
Before Gap
The high probability areas confirmed by both structure and timing are the H and H-C zones. So I will short if the market opens above the close of yesterday which is 1089.50.
The high probability areas confirmed by both structure and timing are the H and H-C zones. So I will short if the market opens above the close of yesterday which is 1089.50.
After Gap
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the high(1096 ) or below the low(1084.25) and it closes the gap at 1089.50, then I will enter at the direction of closing the gap.
Table - 2 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on timing)
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the high(1096 ) or below the low(1084.25) and it closes the gap at 1089.50, then I will enter at the direction of closing the gap.
Today's Data:
ES pivot points:
R3: 1113.50
Fib 1.618: 1103.25
R2: 1101.75
Fib 1.272: 1099.25
High: 1096.00
R1: 1095.75
Pivot: 1090.00
Close: 1089.50
Open: 1086.25
Low: 1084.25
S1: 1084.00
Fib 1.272: 1081.00
S2: 1078.25
Fib 1.618: 1077.00
S3: 1066.50
Fib 1.618: 1103.25
R2: 1101.75
Fib 1.272: 1099.25
High: 1096.00
R1: 1095.75
Pivot: 1090.00
Close: 1089.50
Open: 1086.25
Low: 1084.25
S1: 1084.00
Fib 1.272: 1081.00
S2: 1078.25
Fib 1.618: 1077.00
S3: 1066.50
Profit Target = Gap Close, Stop = 6.5 points.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 1.34 | 1.77 | 1.24 | 0.58 | 1.25 | 1.13 | 1.51 | |
| PCT Prof | 69% | 81% | 70% | 47% | 58% | 66% | 74% | |
| Avg Loss | $298 | $226 | $213 | $266 | $256 | $225 | $276 | |
| Net Loss | $18,750 | $5,875 | $16,600 | $4,250 | $2,813 | $25,188 | $26,188 | |
| Loose | 63 | 26 | 78 | 16 | 11 | 112 | 95 | |
| Avg Win | $178 | $93 | $113 | $175 | $235 | $128 | $145 | |
| Net Win | $25,213 | $10,413 | $20,638 | $2,450 | $3,525 | $28,438 | $39,538 | |
| Win | 142 | 112 | 182 | 14 | 15 | 222 | 273 | |
| Avg P/L | $32 | $33 | $16 | $60 | $27 | $10 | $36 | |
| Net | $6,463 | $4,538 | $4,038 | $1,800 | $713 | $3,250 | $13,350 | |
| Total | 205 | 138 | 260 | 30 | 26 | 334 | 368 |
Profit Target = Gap Close, Stop = 6.5 points.
Copyright © Ali Mohseni 2010 Charts are created using Tradestation software.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Short | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 1.56 | 1.25 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 1.67 | |
| PCT Prof | 65% | 81% | 74% | 54% | 43% | 70% | 74% | |
| Avg Loss | $296 | $311 | $371 | $297 | $313 | $363 | $301 | |
| Net Loss | $8,275 | $4,663 | $11,513 | $3,263 | $1,250 | $31,600 | $25,000 | |
| Loose | 28 | 15 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 87 | 83 | |
| Avg Win | $248 | $88 | $138 | $234 | $333 | $170 | $175 | |
| Net Win | $12,875 | $5,813 | $12,325 | $3,038 | $1,000 | $34,538 | $41,688 | |
| Win | 52 | 66 | 89 | 13 | 3 | 203 | 238 | |
| Avg P/L | $58 | $14 | $7 | $9 | $36 | $10 | $52 | |
| Net | $4,600 | $1,150 | $813 | $225 | $250 | $2,938 | $16,688 | |
| Total | 80 | 81 | 120 | 24 | 7 | 290 | 321 |
Table - 3 After Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Profit Target = 4 points, Stop = 6.5 points. Conditional probabilities after the gap is filled.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 1.30 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 0.34 | 4.85 | 0.93 | 1.19 | |
| PCT Prof | 64% | 56% | 55% | 30% | 88% | 55% | 60% | |
| Avg Loss | $265 | $228 | $237 | $252 | $250 | $239 | $246 | |
| Net Loss | $11,150 | $11,638 | $23,188 | $1,763 | $250 | $26,500 | $24,313 | |
| Loose | 42 | 51 | 98 | 7 | 1 | 111 | 99 | |
| Avg Win | $194 | $197 | $184 | $200 | $173 | $183 | $195 | |
| Net Win | $14,525 | $12,788 | $21,938 | $600 | $1,213 | $24,563 | $28,913 | |
| Win | 75 | 65 | 119 | 3 | 7 | 134 | 148 | |
| Avg P/L | $29 | $10 | $6 | $116 | $120 | $8 | $19 | |
| Net | $3,375 | $1,150 | $1,250 | $1,163 | $963 | $1,938 | $4,600 | |
| Total | 117 | 116 | 217 | 10 | 8 | 245 | 247 |
Good luck and please direct any questions or suggestions!
Copyright © Ali Mohseni 2010 Charts are created using Tradestation software.
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