HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE SOME OF THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY OR ACTUAL TIMING OF EXECUTIONS. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Since June 21, 2010: Number of trades = 50, PCT Win = 72%, Profit Factor (Total Win/Loss) =1.77
Annual return on $4000/contract = 84%.
All data and graphs here is based on $5.00 commission and 1 tick slippage per rt trade.
Trades with less than 0.75 potential profit are not counted.
Graphs are updated on 10/28/2010
Review 11/15/2010
Signal 4 triggered at 11 AM and ended up with 4 points of ofit.
Review 11/11/2010
Signal 5 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss.
Review 11/8/2010
Signal 3 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss.
Review 11/4/2010
Signal 1 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss. Signal # 3 triggered at 11:00 AM and ended up with 4 points of profit. So we had a net loss of one point.
Review 11/1/2010
Signal # 1 was triggered and ended up hitting our stop for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/27/2010
Market opened at 1178.25 and triggered signal 2 at open. This signal reached the target of 1179 shortly for 0.75 points of profit.
Review 10/27/2010
Market opened at 1174.25 and triggered signal 1 at open. This signal failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/26/2010
Market opened at 1186.50 and triggered signal 3 at 11 AM. This signal failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/25/2010
Market opened at 1186.75 and triggered signal 3 at 11 AM. It moved up but did not reach the target and eventually failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 8/31/2010:
ES opened at 1060.25, in a zone with a buy signal. The market moved up to 1063.50, one tick short of our target in less than 20 minutes. However, there was an important news coming out at shortly. Such news can be market movers in an unknown direction. At this time any precalculated odd are irrelevant because the news psychology supersedes anything else. So I moved my target 2 ticks down and I got filled before the news came out.
Most traders know that they better get out of the market before an important news. Those whom I checked with, did take their profit
before the news came out.
Anyway, the news was somewhat negative and it drove the market down to hit our pre-set stop for 7.5 points of loss.
I take this 7.5 loss into account in keeping track of this system, however, any trader with common sense would get out of the market before an important news comes out. If you did you made a profit like me ans some others I know. If you did not, you learned a lesson in trading that will save you money in the future.
Review 8/26/2010:
Review 8/24/2010:
Review 8/23/2010:
8/20/2010
ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance
ES opened at 1070.25 in a zone for a Conditional long trade. The condition of hitting 1070.75 was met in the second bar.
The limit price at 1070.25 was filled in the same bar. The market moved to profit but then started to drop down all the way to 1061.75.
Fortunately, this large drop of about 9 points was anticipated and I had the stop at 1068 which was hit in the third 5 min bar for a loss of 2.25 for the day.
This was a successful trade because we managed to loose about half of a possible win while the probability of winning was more than loosing.
8/19/2010
Annual return on $4000/contract = 84%.
All data and graphs here is based on $5.00 commission and 1 tick slippage per rt trade.
Trades with less than 0.75 potential profit are not counted.
Graphs are updated on 10/28/2010
Review 11/15/2010
Signal 4 triggered at 11 AM and ended up with 4 points of ofit.
Review 11/11/2010
Signal 5 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss.
Review 11/8/2010
Signal 3 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss.
Review 11/4/2010
Signal 1 triggered and ended up with 5 points of loss. Signal # 3 triggered at 11:00 AM and ended up with 4 points of profit. So we had a net loss of one point.
Review 11/1/2010
Signal # 1 was triggered and ended up hitting our stop for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/27/2010
Market opened at 1178.25 and triggered signal 2 at open. This signal reached the target of 1179 shortly for 0.75 points of profit.
Review 10/27/2010
Market opened at 1174.25 and triggered signal 1 at open. This signal failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/26/2010
Market opened at 1186.50 and triggered signal 3 at 11 AM. This signal failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/25/2010
Market opened at 1186.75 and triggered signal 3 at 11 AM. It moved up but did not reach the target and eventually failed for 5 points of loss.
Review 10/22/2010
My Signal # 1 triggered and had a profit of 2.75 points..
Review 10/21/2010
My Signal # 3 Triggered at 12:46 and resulted in a profit of 4.5 points.
My Signal #1 was triggered at the open. The market went side ways until the news was out at 10:00 AM. News fluctuation caused this signal to hit our stop. It should be noted that after the news settled, the market continued in the direction that was predicted by this signal to hit our target at 1175.00. But in any case we had a loos of 5.5 point. I prefer to have a loss in my signal because of unpredictable fluctuation but observe the direction after the fluctuation is the one that was predicted, than to have a win because of the fluctuation only.
My Signal # 1 triggered and had a profit of 2.75 points..
Review 10/21/2010
My Signal # 3 Triggered at 12:46 and resulted in a profit of 4.5 points.
My Signal #1 was triggered at the open. The market went side ways until the news was out at 10:00 AM. News fluctuation caused this signal to hit our stop. It should be noted that after the news settled, the market continued in the direction that was predicted by this signal to hit our target at 1175.00. But in any case we had a loos of 5.5 point. I prefer to have a loss in my signal because of unpredictable fluctuation but observe the direction after the fluctuation is the one that was predicted, than to have a win because of the fluctuation only.
The total result is -1 points. For the sake of keeping track of this system, I deduct 1 tick of slippage from any trade. The unused slippage can compensate for possible future partial fills.
Review 10/18/2010
Signal # 2 was triggered at 9:50 bar. The entry at 1174.50 was at 9:55 bar, it reached the target of 1178 at 10:15 bar for 3.5 points of profit.
Signal # 2 was triggered at 9:50 bar. The entry at 1174.50 was at 9:55 bar, it reached the target of 1178 at 10:15 bar for 3.5 points of profit.
Review 10/15/2010
Signal #3 was triggered at 9:45 bar for a short entry at 1174. The target of 1170.75 was reached in about 10 minutes(Pretty much the whole time in green).
Today's win was 3.25 points and there was no slippage but I deduct one tick slippage anyway to compensate for any future questionable fills.
Signal #3 was triggered at 9:45 bar for a short entry at 1174. The target of 1170.75 was reached in about 10 minutes(Pretty much the whole time in green).
Today's win was 3.25 points and there was no slippage but I deduct one tick slippage anyway to compensate for any future questionable fills.
Review 10/14/2010
ES opened at 1173.50 and triggered our signal #2 to buy for the target of 1174.75. That is a small profit of 1.25.
Review 10/13/2010
Two trades triggered today. Trades # 1 lost 5 points and trade #4 won 4 points for a total loss of 1 point for the day. As in most cases, there were not any slippage involved, however I deduct one tick of slippage and $5.00 for commission from all trades for record keeping just to be on the safe side.
Review 10/12/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered to enter at 1161.75 after price touched 1162.25. The entry was at 14:05 bar and the target was reached in less than 10 minutes.
Review 10/11/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered to enter at open (1162.75). The target of 1160.50 was filled in less than 20 minutes for 2.25 points of profit.
Review 10/8/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered enter at open (1156.00). The target of 1156.75 was filled in seconds for 0.75 points of profit.
Review 10/5/2010
Our trade number 5 was triggered at 11:00 AM. The signal was to buy at market (1149.50). The target of 4 points reached in about 30 minutes without any draw down.
Review 10/4/2010
We had a signal triggered to go long at open if it opens between 1130 and 1142.25. The market opened at 1139. It reached our target of 1142.25 in just a few minutes for 3.25 points of profit.
Review 9/29/2010
We had a signal triggered to go long at open if it opens between 1139.50 and 1141.75 The market opened at 1139.50. Since our intervals are exclusive, our signal technically did not triggered. However, using the data tables and other factors I decided to go long at 1138.25 and took a nice 4.5 points profit in 10 minutes. This will not count towards our history.
9/27/2010
We had a signal triggered to go short at open (1144) and target 1143.00. Target reached within a few seconds and we had a small win.
Review 9/21/2010
We had a signal triggered to go short at open (1138.25) and target 1136.50. I actually got filled with a slippage in my favor at 1138.50. It took about two minutes to hit our target. A small gain but with no pain.
Review 9/17/2010
We had two triggered signals today. One to sell at open (1125.75) and another to sell at 1122.75 if 1122.25 is hit.
The first signal hit the target in less than 25 minutes for 3.5 points of profit. The second signal hit the target after 3 minutes for 2.75 points of profit.
So the total profit for today was 6.25 points.
Review 9/16/2010
Our signal was triggered to buy at open (1116.75). The market moved up by the afternoon to our target at 1121.00 for 4.25 points of profit without hitting our stop of 5.5 points.
Review 9/8/2010
Our signal was triggered to sell at open (1092.75). The market moved up and hit our stop for 5.5 points loss.
Review 9/3/2010 - 9/7/2010
We either had no signal or no signal was triggered.
Review 9/2/2010:
ES opened at 1173.50 and triggered our signal #2 to buy for the target of 1174.75. That is a small profit of 1.25.
Review 10/13/2010
Two trades triggered today. Trades # 1 lost 5 points and trade #4 won 4 points for a total loss of 1 point for the day. As in most cases, there were not any slippage involved, however I deduct one tick of slippage and $5.00 for commission from all trades for record keeping just to be on the safe side.
Review 10/12/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered to enter at 1161.75 after price touched 1162.25. The entry was at 14:05 bar and the target was reached in less than 10 minutes.
Review 10/11/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered to enter at open (1162.75). The target of 1160.50 was filled in less than 20 minutes for 2.25 points of profit.
Review 10/8/2010
Our trade number 1 was triggered enter at open (1156.00). The target of 1156.75 was filled in seconds for 0.75 points of profit.
Review 10/5/2010
Our trade number 5 was triggered at 11:00 AM. The signal was to buy at market (1149.50). The target of 4 points reached in about 30 minutes without any draw down.
Review 10/4/2010
We had a signal triggered to go long at open if it opens between 1130 and 1142.25. The market opened at 1139. It reached our target of 1142.25 in just a few minutes for 3.25 points of profit.
Review 9/29/2010
We had a signal triggered to go long at open if it opens between 1139.50 and 1141.75 The market opened at 1139.50. Since our intervals are exclusive, our signal technically did not triggered. However, using the data tables and other factors I decided to go long at 1138.25 and took a nice 4.5 points profit in 10 minutes. This will not count towards our history.
9/27/2010
We had a signal triggered to go short at open (1144) and target 1143.00. Target reached within a few seconds and we had a small win.
Review 9/21/2010
We had a signal triggered to go short at open (1138.25) and target 1136.50. I actually got filled with a slippage in my favor at 1138.50. It took about two minutes to hit our target. A small gain but with no pain.
Review 9/17/2010
The first signal hit the target in less than 25 minutes for 3.5 points of profit. The second signal hit the target after 3 minutes for 2.75 points of profit.
So the total profit for today was 6.25 points.
Review 9/16/2010
Our signal was triggered to buy at open (1116.75). The market moved up by the afternoon to our target at 1121.00 for 4.25 points of profit without hitting our stop of 5.5 points.
Review 9/8/2010
Our signal was triggered to sell at open (1092.75). The market moved up and hit our stop for 5.5 points loss.
Review 9/3/2010 - 9/7/2010
We either had no signal or no signal was triggered.
Review 9/2/2010:
ES opened at 1081.75, in a zone to trigger a long trade. However, the profit was too small to trade. However, the market continued going up in the direction of this signal.
Review 9/1/2010:
Review 9/1/2010:
We did not have any signals today.
Review 8/31/2010:
We did not have any signals today.
Review 8/30/2010:
Review 8/30/2010:
Market opened at 1060.25, not in any zone to trigger a trade.
Review 8/27/2010:
Most traders know that they better get out of the market before an important news. Those whom I checked with, did take their profit
before the news came out.
Anyway, the news was somewhat negative and it drove the market down to hit our pre-set stop for 7.5 points of loss.
I take this 7.5 loss into account in keeping track of this system, however, any trader with common sense would get out of the market before an important news comes out. If you did you made a profit like me ans some others I know. If you did not, you learned a lesson in trading that will save you money in the future.
Review 8/27/2010:
ES opened at 1053.50, not in any zone for trade signals. So there was no trade today.Review 8/26/2010:
ES opened at 1058.75 slightly above 1057.75 which was the upper limit for a zone for trade signals. So there was no trade today.
Review 8/25/2010:
ES opened at 1044 right at the border between two different zones. So no trade triggered today. However, the upper zone had very good probability and the lower zone also had good probability but not quite up to my criteria. I decide to go long but with extra cautious, regardless of the fact that our signal was not triggered. I went long at 1043.50 and covered a few seconds later for 3 points of profit. This will not count as profit for this system.
Review 8/24/2010:
We had no reliable signal to trade.
Review 8/23/2010:
There was no trade signal.
ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance
Review 8/20/2010:
The limit price at 1070.25 was filled in the same bar. The market moved to profit but then started to drop down all the way to 1061.75.
Fortunately, this large drop of about 9 points was anticipated and I had the stop at 1068 which was hit in the third 5 min bar for a loss of 2.25 for the day.
This was a successful trade because we managed to loose about half of a possible win while the probability of winning was more than loosing.
Review 8/19/2010:
ES opened at 1086.50 outside any trading zone as shown above. There was no trade today.
8/18/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/18/2010:
Our second trade was triggered within a minute after target was hit. This time it went straight down to our target of 4.75 profit in about 15 minutes.
So the result was 5.75 points in about 15 minutes.
8/17/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/17/2010:
ES opened at 1086.25 outside any trading zone as shown above. There was no trade today.
8/16/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/16/2010:
ES opened at 1070.25 outside any trading zone as shown above. There was no trade today.
Friday the 13th, 8/13/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/13/2010:
ES opened at 1077.26 outside any trading zone as shown above. There was no trade today.
8/12/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/12/2010:
ES opened at 1071.25 below of the low of yesterday. According to my raw data, this was a long signal and that is how I posted. But last night after reading other opinions and information about the market, I doubted my own analysis. I was afraid the market may do another free fall. So I decided to reduce the risk and limit the area for a long entry. Against my raw data, I moved the lower limit of the long entry to 1079.75. So technically we did not have any trade. However, I traded according to my raw data and made some profit. Also a few of my friends who traded by the initial signal called me and thanked me for the profit they made. So I know at least some people benefited from this signal.8/11/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/11/2010:
As you can see, the market moved against the direction to close any gap. It was a good signal not to trade the gap.
8/10/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/10/2010:
ES opened at 1115.25 below of the low of yesterday and not in any zone for trading.
As you can see, the market moved against the direction to close any gap. It was a good signal not to trade the opening gap today.
8/9/10 Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
Review 8/9/2010:
I am constantly working on adding more trades to this system but I do not want to add more trades at the cost of lowering our win rate or profit factor, even if the new trades overall performance is good.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500) 8/6/10
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels: What are Pivot Levels?
Review 8/6/2010:
When I do not have a signal to fade a gap after it proves to be such a loser without hesitation, I feel just as good or even better than I have a signal that wins.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500) 8/5/10
This table is a list of important support resistance levels calculated for each day based on recent price actions.
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels: What are Pivot Levels?
Review 8/5/2010:
I personally did a bit better because I took advantage of price bounces at the pivot point and yesterday's open point.
The price finally reached our target in the third 5 min bar in the after market trading.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500) 8/4/10
Adjust your stop and target points according to the following Table - PS in order to improve your overall return.
This table is a list of important support resistance levels calculated for each day based on recent price actions.
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels: What are Pivot Levels?
Review 8/4/2010:
ES opened at 1120.25 which was outside the green zone to go long. Today the gap faded just before the open. So there was no trade today.8/3/10
Adjust your stop and target points according to the following table in order to improve your overall return.
This table is a list of important support resistance levels calculated for each day based on recent price actions.
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels:
Review 8/3/2010:
ES opened at 1119.75 which was in the green zone to go long.Around 10 AM market was news driven which went down 6.5 points but did not get close to our stop of 8 points. It then started its upward movements until it hit our target of 1121.50 for 1.75 profit at 11:40 bar.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
8/2/10
If market opens between yesterday's High and open(1103.50 - 1100.25) then goes down and touches 1100.25 go short (Sell Limit) at 1101. Target 1096.25. Stop Loss at 1107.50If market opens between yesterday's Open and Low(1086.50 - 1084.50) then goes up and touches 1100.25 go long (Buy Limit) at 1099.50 Target 1103.25 Stop Loss at 1095.
Review 8/2/2010:
ES opened at 1114.50 which was not in any zone to trigger a trade. So there was notrades for today.As it turned out, the market rallied up, the gap never closed and it would have hit our stop loss point resulting in a loss.
So my guide here saved any gap trader who followed it a losing trade.
I am happier to avoid a losing trade than to have a wining trade.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500)
7/30/2010
If market opens between yesterday's Close and Low(1096.75 - 1088.75) then goes up and touches 1096.75 go long (Buy Limit) at 1096 Target 1099.25 Stop Loss at 1088.50
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels:
Review 7/30/2010:
The trade would have been profitable anyway. I missed it because it was below my acceptable probability.
In order to have a high success rate in this system, we have to be very selective.
Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500): 7/29/2010
If market opens between yesterday's Close and Low(1102.50-1099.25) go long at open profit target 1102.50 and stop loss 5.5 points below entry.
Tip: Adjust your stop loss according to pivot levels in Table - PS.
If market opens between yesterday's High and open(1111.50 - 1108.25) then goes down and touches 1102.50 go short (Sell Limit) at 1104. Target 1099.75 Stop Loss at 1111.75
If market opens between yesterday's Close and Low(1102.50 - 1099.25) then goes up and touches 1102.50 go long (Buy Limit) at 1101.50 Target 1104.25 Stop Loss at 1095.75
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels:
Review 7/28/2010:
ES opened at 1110 in the zone that has a high probability for a potential short trade. The Trigger point of 1102.50 was hit at 11:10 bar. The order to sell was at 1104 (Just below the pivot of 1104.50). The market moved up very quickly but it came two ticks short of touching the order line. The price moved down quickly and reached the target in about 10 minutes.
I should note that my original research is based on going short at the trigger point (in this case 1102.50). However, since our trigger point is always on support/resistance level, I improvise on trade point in order to get a little better by taking advantage of this support action at the trigger point. In this case I asked for 1.5 points more, two ticks below the pivot of 1104.50. The price went up after hitting the trigger point but did not go high enough to fill the sell order at 1104. Perhaps I should be a bit less greedy in trying to extract a few more ticks out of the market. This area is on my wish list to do a complete research about it. But the good news is that this trade eventually worked. Please continue to the following graph.
In the afternoon session the market climbed up and filled the sell order, barely touched the pivot (1104.50) and started to drop and sweetly reached the target at about 20 minutes.Today's Forecast for ES(E-Mini S&P 500): 7/28/2010
If market opens above yesterday's Close(1111) go short at open profit target 1111 and stop loss 6.25 points above entry. Tip: Adjust your stop loss according to pivot levels in Table - PS.
If market opens below yesterday's close(1111) then goes high,and touches 1111 go long (Buy Limit) at 1110.Profit target is 1116 and stop loss is 1103.75.
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels:
Table - PS ES Pivot Levels:
ES Opened at 1108.25. At 9:36 it hit 1111 which was the trigger to buy at 1110. at 9:38 it tested the pivot at 1111.50 and bounced back down. It never tested this point again and pivot remained the high of the day.At 10:35 it touched our stop and ended up a losing day for 6.25 points. After observing the sharp reaction to the pivot I was able to get out of this trade with less than theoretical loss. But I lost the balance in another trade outside the gap analysis.
Pivot point is one of the strongest support/resistance points. When it is so close to another resistance area, they make a barrier to reach our target as they did in this case.
I will have to conduct a research to find out what is the optimum way to handle pivot if it is on our way to profit. Until then, I will try to avoid it by either entering a trade after pivot is violated, taking the profit just before pivot or avoiding the trade altogether.
Forecast for 7/27/2010:
 |
| Before Gap |
If market opens between yesterday's close and open (1109.50 1100.75) go long at open profit target 1109.50 and stop loss 6 points below entry.
 |
| After Gap |
If market opens below yesterday's low(1097.75) then goes high, go long at 1109.50.
In both cases profit target is 4 points and stop loss is 6 points.
Table - PS ES pivot points:
Table - PS ES pivot points:
Review 7/27/2010:
Review:
The market opened at 1116.75 above the high. No trades was triggered.
After Gap
The market hit the trigger price 1109.50 at 10:20 bar. It bounced up before it dropped into profit area. The 4 point profit target was at 1105.50, however since the pivot point was only 3 ticks above it, I moved my target to above pivot. The pivot much of the time acts like a strong support (resistance) as it did in this case. So if you followed my guideline of moving the stop loss above pivot points, you made a profit like I did. There was plenty of other opportunities to get out of this trade with profit. It never reached the stop loss point. If you held on to it until close, you had 1.5 points of loss. For the case of tracking the win/loss points here, I will count this as a loss, even though any trader who pays attention to pivot points would end up with a profit. To be honest, I was tired of no loss for all this time. This way my audience know there can be losing trades as well.